巧克力股，布手套股后尘？

巧克力股，布手套股后尘？

这只是我从伊波拉事件中的揣测，这次的伊波拉事件，也使到手套股在小熊市中逆流而上，我也趁此机会在2.36卖掉了手中的supermax, ，平均价2.28 。之前在股东大会期间买入，不对时机，买入后就一直跌，终于有机会脱手了。

伊波拉主要发生在西非的三个国家：
赖比瑞亚（Liberia）
狮子山（Sierra Leone）
几内亚（Guinea）

下图是我在网络搜寻到的2011/2012 可可生产国：

从图表可看出， 象牙海岸、印尼、加纳、尼日利亚是四大可可生产国。印尼在就座落在东南亚（废话），而 象牙海岸、加纳和尼日利亚我认识有看世界杯的都听过吧，那我们来看看这三大国家的地理位置：

象牙海岸、加纳和尼日利亚很明显的曝露与伊波拉的风险。我也曾耳闻可可有可能会面临短缺。

所以我就google了一下又涉及巧克力的上市公司，结果找到了源宗（GCB, 5102），看看他的17/10/2014 闭市的股价：

营业额和盈利：

哇，去年赚酱少，而且有两季是亏的。今年最新一季也是亏的。

GCB不是种植可可的，它是从事把可可豆加工成可可粉，可可起价对GCB究竟利不利好？我找了很久也找不到答案。

可可也有可能不会起了，刚刚在ICCO (International Cocoa Organization) 九月的review看到的：

翻译没错的话，意思是“可可价向下了（曾已因伊波拉恐慌而上升），当两大生产国（没说明哪国）宣布会提高可可农夫的薪金”。可我也在一个网页看到这个：

Or at least that was the fear until the end of September. Then suddenly the fear vanished. The price of cocoa futures eased back. Maybe the reason was that weeks had passed and Ebola hadn't jumped the border. Or maybe it was because Ivory Coast had reassured traders by locking down its land borders, allowing almost no human traffic from Ebola-affected countries. "The market feels like we dodged a bullet," says Scoville.

That doesn't mean that Bart Simpson will be guaranteed that he can lay his fingers on an affordable Butterfinger in the months ahead.

Those sealed borders could still have an impact on chocolate prices. Most of the workers who harvest cocoa in Ivory Coast are migrants from Liberia and Guinea. Now they can't cross the border to pick the pods. And picking season is the beginning of October.

"If Cote d'Ivoire's agriculture sector loses all of its laborers — that will have a huge impact in terms of the crop and what can actually be harvested," says George Edward, head of group research for Ecobank, a pan-African bank.

原来象牙海岸也有外劳的，算我孤陋寡闻 =.=

注意！！！我可没有建议大家买GCB。写在这里纯粹分享我的想法，以后也可以看看我的揣测到底准不准。